USD/THB Forecast 2026: Dollar vs Baht Outlook
Last updated: May 2026 • 10 min read
USD/THB has been rangebound between 33-36 for most of 2025-2026. Here's what's likely to move the pair in the second half of 2026.
Key Drivers
1. Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed funds rate sits at 4.75% as of May 2026. The market expects 2-3 more cuts by year-end, which would narrow the US-TH yield differential and weaken the dollar. If the Fed delivers fewer cuts than expected, USD/THB pushes higher.
2. Bank of Thailand Stance
The BoT has kept rates steady at 2.50%. They want a weaker baht to support exports and tourism, but can't cut much without risking capital outflows. Expected to hold steady through 2026.
3. Thai Economic Growth
Thailand's GDP is expected to grow 3.2-3.5% in 2026, driven by tourism recovery. Stronger growth supports the baht, but the impact is gradual.
4. US-China Tensions
Trade tensions affect the baht through Thai exports (part of the China supply chain) and EM risk sentiment. Any escalation pushes USD/THB higher.
Bank Forecasts Roundup (May 2026)
| Institution | Q2 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q2 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 34.00 | 33.50 | 33.00 |
| JP Morgan | 34.50 | 34.00 | 33.50 |
| Citi | 34.50 | 34.00 | 33.50 |
| MUFG | 34.00 | 33.00 | 32.50 |
| ING | 34.50 | 34.00 | 33.50 |
Technical Analysis
Key levels:
- Support: 33.50 (strong, tested multiple times in 2025)
- Support: 33.00 (major psychological level)
- Resistance: 35.00 (key resistance)
- Resistance: 36.50 (2025 high)
The 200-day moving average at 34.80 is acting as dynamic resistance. A sustained break above would signal stronger dollar trend. A break below 33.50 confirms bearish USD/THB consensus.
Historical USD/THB Rates
| Year | Average | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 (partial) | 34.50 | 33.50 | 36.50 |
| 2024 | 35.50 | 33.80 | 37.50 |
| 2023 | 34.00 | 31.00 | 36.50 |
| 2022 | 35.00 | 32.50 | 38.00 |
| 2021 | 32.50 | 30.00 | 33.50 |